The Australian Open women’s semi-finals bring together the two most consistent players of the 2026 season so far, as top seed Aryna Sabalenka faces 12th seed Elina Svitolina with both still unbeaten this year.
A place in the Melbourne final is at stake, with Sabalenka chasing a fourth consecutive Australian Open final and Svitolina aiming to reach her first Grand Slam title match.
This will be the seventh meeting between the pair and only their second clash at a major, following Sabalenka’s straight-sets win at the French Open in 2023.
Current Form and Tournament Path
Sabalenka has barely been tested in Melbourne. The world number one has yet to drop a set in the tournament and has not lost a match all season, extending her winning streak in 2026 to ten. Her semi-final spot was sealed with a ruthless 6–3, 6–0 win over Iva Jovic, continuing a pattern of short, controlled matches that have conserved energy.
Across the tournament, Sabalenka has combined first-serve efficiency with aggressive returning, regularly breaking early and removing pressure from her own service games.
Svitolina’s run has been equally impressive, if more eye-catching. The Ukrainian has also won ten matches in 2026, dropping just one set across the entire season. In Melbourne, she has taken out two top-10 opponents, first Mirra Andreeva and then Coco Gauff, the latter in a dominant straight-sets win conceding only three games.
That result has pushed Svitolina up to 10th in the live rankings and underlined how well her counterpunching game is holding up against elite power hitters.
Head-to-Head Context
Sabalenka holds a clear edge in this matchup, winning five of their six previous meetings and the last four in a row. The only win for Svitolina came on clay in Strasbourg in 2020, a slower surface that helped neutralise Sabalenka’s power.
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Madrid | Clay | Sabalenka | 2–0 |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Hard | Sabalenka | 2–0 |
| 2024 | Rome | Clay | Sabalenka | 2–1 |
| 2023 | French Open | Clay | Sabalenka | 2–0 |
| 2020 | Strasbourg | Clay | Svitolina | 2–1 |
Notably, three of their last six encounters required a deciding set, showing that while Sabalenka often finishes on top, Svitolina has repeatedly managed to extend matches.
Tactical Matchup
Sabalenka’s serve and first-strike tennis remain the defining factors. She has dominated short rallies throughout the tournament and has rarely been forced into extended baseline exchanges.
Svitolina’s path to competing lies in lengthening points and drawing errors, an approach that has worked well against aggressive opponents earlier in the draw. Her movement and defensive depth have been exceptional, but sustaining that level against Sabalenka’s pace over two sets has historically been difficult.
The main risk for Sabalenka is allowing the match to slow down and becoming involved in long rallies where Svitolina thrives. For Svitolina, the challenge is holding serve consistently enough to stay within touching distance on the scoreboard.
Odds Snapshot
Sabalenka enters the semi-final as a clear favourite, typically priced around 1.25–1.30, with Svitolina trading near 3.80–4.10. Set markets suggest a competitive contest, with over 2.5 sets priced attractively given their past meetings and current form.
Final Prediction
Both players arrive in peak condition, unbeaten and full of confidence. Sabalenka’s head-to-head dominance and Melbourne pedigree give her a narrow edge, but Svitolina’s recent wins over elite opposition reduce the likelihood of a routine outcome.
