Australian Open, Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic, Rod Laver Arena. Alcaraz is 5–0 across his last five matches; Djokovic is also 5–0. Djokovic holds a narrow head-to-head edge, with tie-breaks frequent in this matchup. The title and a major career milestone are on the line.
Carlos Alcaraz Review & Recent Form
Competition situation:
Alcaraz is playing for his first Australian Open title and is one win away from completing a full set of Grand Slam trophies.
Last five matches: W W W W W
The top seed reached the final with a dominant first week before a major physical test in the semi-finals.
Recent match detail:
- vs Alexander Zverev: won 3–2
- vs Alex de Minaur: won 3–0
- vs Tommy Paul: won 3–0
Alcaraz had not dropped a set until the last four, where he required five sets and multiple tie-breaks to escape. Court time has been heavy, and his semi-final workload is a notable variable entering the final, especially if the match extends again.
Novak Djokovic Review & Recent Form
Competition situation:
Djokovic is targeting an 11th Australian Open crown and a potential 25th Grand Slam title.
Last five matches: W W W W W
His run has included stretches of dominance but also late-round disruption due to walkovers and retirements.
Recent match detail:
- vs Jannik Sinner: won 3–2
- vs Botic van de Zandschulp: won 3–0
- vs Francesco Maestrelli: won 3–0
Djokovic was pushed into a five-set match in the semi-final but has logged fewer total hours than Alcaraz across the tournament. The main question is whether he can maintain baseline intensity over a full match against a younger opponent with higher rally speed.
Head-to-Head Record
| Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | US Open | Alcaraz 3–0 Djokovic |
| 21/01/2025 | Australian Open | Djokovic 3–1 Alcaraz |
| 04/08/2024 | Olympic Tournament | Djokovic 2–0 Alcaraz |
| 14/07/2024 | Wimbledon | Alcaraz 3–0 Djokovic |
| 20/08/2023 | Cincinnati | Djokovic 2–1 Alcaraz |
Djokovic leads 5–4 overall and is 2–1 ahead on Australian Open hard courts. Six of their nine previous meetings included at least one tie-break, with several featuring multiple breakers.
Lineups, Injuries & Suspensions
No official withdrawals are listed, though Alcaraz has dealt with leg discomfort during the tournament and carries the heavier court-time load into the final.
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
Alcaraz is a slight favourite, trading around 1.30–1.35, while Djokovic is priced between 3.15–3.45.
Key markets:
- Match winner: Alcaraz narrowly favoured
- Tie-break occurrence: Over 0.5 tie-breaks strongly supported by matchup history
- Total sets: Over 3.5 sets priced competitively given recent five-set matches
- Correct score ranges: 3–1 or 3–2 outcomes more likely than straight sets
- Games handicap: Djokovic +4.5 to +5.5 attractive if match extends
The main volatility factor is physical condition. Alcaraz’s semi-final workload creates risk if rallies become extended, while Djokovic’s recent inconsistency at Slam finals introduces its own uncertainty.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
Broadcast availability depends on regional Grand Slam rights holders.
Kickoff time: Sunday, 01/02/2026 (Melbourne final schedule).
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic, Australian Open
Alcaraz holds a narrow edge in speed and first-strike pressure, while Djokovic’s return accuracy and tie-break experience remain decisive weapons. The primary risk comes from Alcaraz’s physical recovery after a long semi-final and Djokovic’s ability to extend points deep into sets.
- Final Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz 3–2 Novak Djokovic
- Best Bet: Over 0.5 tie-breaks
- Alternative Value: Over 3.5 total sets
